In 2021–2025, there were on average 4.2 injury road accidents a year per 1,000 drivers with a probationary licence, an estimated 2.7 for experienced drivers under 65 and 1.9 for drivers aged 65 and over. Per licence, a novice driver's accident risk was thus about 1.5 times that of an experienced driver. 31% of novice accidents were single-vehicle accidents (all: 26%) and 36% happened in the dark (all: 25%). In accidents involving an older driver, 58 people died – 5.7 per 100 accidents (all: 4.4).
How this is calculated
The accident data record whether a driver with a probationary licence (the first two years) and whether a motor-vehicle driver aged 65 or over was involved. These counts are divided by the average number of licences in the group in the same year. Involvements of experienced drivers are estimated: all motor-vehicle drivers involved (from the number of vehicles) minus novices and older drivers. The flag shows involvement, not fault. A licence holder may not drive much: older drivers drive less on average, so per kilometre their risk would be higher.
Accidents per 1,000 licences a year
Injury accidents in which a driver of the group was involved.
Accidents by year
With a novice or older driver involved. The last year is incomplete.
When and how (2021–2025)
Time of day
Share of the group's accidents, %.
Day of the week
Share of the group's accidents, %.
Type of accident
Share of the group's accidents, %.
| Novice driver | Older driver (65+) | All motor-vehicle accidents | |
|---|---|---|---|
| In built-up areas | 53 % | 59 % | 60 % |
| Single-vehicle accident (e.g. run-off-road) | 31 % | 16 % | 26 % |
| In the dark | 36 % | 16 % | 25 % |
| Deaths per 100 accidents | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.4 |
Data: Transport Administration, injury road accidents (flags “novice driver involved” and “driver aged 65+ involved”) and “Estonian driving licences” (1 January snapshots). The experienced-driver figure is an estimate and also includes foreign and unlicensed drivers, so their actual rate is, if anything, lower.
Data as of 30 September 2026