Road Safety Programme 2026–2035: will Estonia reach the target?

Assessment

In the short term Estonia is on track: the estimated 3-year average for 2026 (54.3) is below the programme milestone (63).

In the long run the target will not be met at the current pace. If road deaths keep falling as fast as in 2011–2025 (−4.1% per year), the 2033–2035 average will be about 33 deaths a year. That matches the government's “50% reduction” scenario (33), not the chosen target (22). Reaching the target requires a decline of 9.6% per year – about 2.6 times faster than so far.

The trend of the last ten years is even weaker (−1.7% per year). If road deaths stay at the five-year average (55 a year), Estonia falls behind the programme path in 2029; if the long-term trend continues, in 2031.

The previous programme also missed its target: the 2023–2025 average was meant to be at most 40 deaths a year; the actual average was 57.

The target is achievable only if the programme's measures are actually funded and delivered. The funding need for 2026–2029 is €94.4 million (incl. €39.2 million for rebuilding dangerous locations). The programme also assumes the Tallinn–Tartu and Tallinn–Pärnu highways are upgraded.